HPAI incursion risk assessment for Australia
The risk (likelihood and consequence) of H5N1 HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b (H5 bird flu) incursions into Australia via wild birds
H5 bird flu is a serious and highly contagious strain of avian influenza, which has been spreading globally since 2021 through the movements of wild birds, with unprecedented impact on poultry, wild birds and some mammals.
In 2022, to better understand the risk of H5 bird flu and help guide preparedness efforts, the Australian Government Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry (DAFF) commissioned work to assess Australia’s vulnerability to this disease, including a risk assessment. Based on information available as of 20 July 2023, the risk was assessed to have increased compared to previous risk assessments.
Please note
- This risk assessment considers the risk of H5N1 HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b (H5 bird flu) incursions into Australia via two pathways:
- via long-distance migratory birds of the orders Charadriiformes (notably shorebirds) and Procellariformes (notably shearwaters) during the Spring migratory period.
- via nomadic Anseriformes (waterfowl) within the Australo-Papuan region, which occur year-round, with frequent yet irregular movements of birds, driven by strong environmental conditions within the region.
- The global avian influenza situation is dynamic and since this report was finalised (20 July 2023), H5N1 HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b emerged in the sub-Antarctic.
- The risk of incursions into Australia via a third pathway, involving long-distance movements of seabirds with circumpolar distributions, was subsequently assessed at the international level in the OFFLU and included considerations for Oceania, including Australia.
- Australia had its first detections of H5 bird flu in June 2026, in a migratory seabird on Western Australia’s southern coast. For more information on this event, see birdflu.gov.au and Wildlife Health Australia’s Incident Information page.
WHA would like to acknowledge the significant expertise and comprehensive assessments undertaken by Dr Marcel Klaassen (Deakin University) and Dr Michelle Wille (The University of Melbourne) in addition to critical contributions and feedback from members of the National Avian Influenza Wild Bird Steering Group.